Giá căn hộ lẫn nhà liền thổ ở TP HCM duy trì ổn định ở tầm cao vào quý I và dự báo tiếp tục tăng nhẹ thời gian tới.
Sau 3 tháng tìm kiếm, anh Hoàng mới chốt được một căn hộ 2 phòng ngủ rộng 65 m2 ở khu vực quận Nhà Bè giáp quận 7. Chủ nhà bán 3,6 tỷ đồng và chỉ chấp nhận bớt “lộc” 10 triệu đồng. “Chủ nhà không có nhu cầu giảm giá nên tôi hầu như không có cơ hội thương lượng”, Hoàng cho biết.
Hạ quyết tâm chấm dứt nhiều năm tốn 8 triệu đồng thuê căn hộ mỗi tháng và lãi vay mua nhà đang giảm sâu, Hoàng chấp nhận vay thêm 1,4 tỷ đồng để mua. “Dự án này đã ra sổ nên giá neo chặt lắm. Những nơi chưa có sổ giá cũng nằm im chứ không thấy giảm đáng kể, trừ khi tìm được chủ kẹt tiền khẩn cấp”, Hoàng kể.
Đầu tháng này, chị Vy tìm được căn nhà ưng ý giá 5 tỷ đồng trong một hẻm xe máy quận Bình Thạnh, đi vào từ đường Nguyễn Hữu Cảnh. Căn nhà có diện tích sàn 110 m2, xây trên đất 55 m2. “Lãi vay đang rẻ nên tôi tranh thủ chứ đã tìm nhà 2 năm rồi. Với tầm tiền mình có thể chi, nhà được giới thiệu ngày càng nhỏ dần, hẻm vào hẹp hoặc rộng thì pháp lý có vấn đề”, Vy nói.
Bất động sản khu Đông TP HCM, với các căn hộ chung cư, dự án đất nền, nhà phố; TP Thủ Đức, tháng 7/2023. Ảnh: Quỳnh Trần
Các đơn vị nghiên cứu thị trường và dịch vụ bất động sản đánh giá, dù không “sốt” như Hà Nội nhưng thị trường nhà đất tại TP HCM giữ mặt bằng giá ở mức khá cao. CBRE cho hay tại cuối quý I, giá sơ cấp chung cư TP HCM đạt mức 61 triệu đồng mỗi m2, không thay đổi so với quý trước. Còn theo Avison Young Việt Nam, giá bán căn hộ sơ cấp tăng nhẹ khoảng 2-5% theo quý.
Trong khi đó, những người có nhu cầu mua nhà liền thổ phải săn tìm hàng biệt thự nhà phố mới do các chủ đầu tư mở bán rất ít ỏi và không dành cho số đông. Savills cho hay chỉ có 42 căn biệt thự/nhà phố mới mở bán tại TP HCM quý trước, mức giá khoảng 10 tỷ đồng. Tổng nguồn cung sơ cấp cả quý đạt 762 căn, nhưng 76% có giá trên 30 tỷ.
Vì sao giá nhà neo chặt mức cao và khó giảm? Lý do hàng đầu theo các chuyên gia là khan hiếm. Savills cho biết nguồn cung căn hộ sơ cấp tại TP HCM quý I giảm mạnh 35% so với quý trước và giảm 28% so với cùng kỳ 2023, xuống còn 4.922 căn. Điều này xảy ra sau khi 9 dự án tạm ngưng bán hàng do chưa hoàn thiện các yêu cầu pháp lý hoặc điều chỉnh chính sách bán hàng.
Ngoài ra, hai dự án bị trì hoãn mở bán, dẫn đến nguồn cung mới khiêm tốn ở mức 633 căn từ một dự án mới và 6 dự án giai đoạn tiếp theo, giảm 78% so với quý trước và giảm 61% so với cùng kỳ.
Giá bán các căn hộ mới thuộc hàng cao cấp. Trên mặt tiền đường Mai Chí Thọ (TP Thủ Đức), một dự án hạng sang của chủ đầu tư nước ngoài đang có lượng đặt chỗ khả quan nhưng với mức giá chào bán từ 125 triệu đồng mỗi m2.
Khan hiếm khiến giá nhà ở sẽ tiếp tục tăng. CBRE dự báo, khoảng hơn 8.000 căn hộ dự kiến mở bán mới trong năm 2024 tại TP HCM với giá tăng khoảng 3%. Với thị trường nhà thấp tầng xây sẵn, giá bán thứ cấp dự đoán tăng 4%. Savills cho hay, trong chín tháng còn lại, nguồn cung biệt thự/nhà phố dự kiến đạt 1.149 căn, chủ yếu đến từ các giai đoạn tiếp theo của các dự án hiện hữu và phần lớn có giá trên 20 tỷ đồng.
Lý do thứ hai là bài toán lợi nhuận của chủ đầu tư. Theo Savills, tình trạng thiếu nhà ở giá vừa túi tiền là vấn đề không thể phủ nhận. Tuy nhiên, điều này không bất ngờ bởi nó không phải là lựa chọn tiềm năng cho các chủ đầu tư.
“Quỹ đất để phát triển nhà ở tại cả hai thành phố (TP HCM và Hà Nội) ngày càng khan hiếm và do đó đắt đỏ hơn, có nghĩa là chủ đầu tư phải theo đuổi mức giá bán cao hơn để có thể đạt được lợi nhuận”, bà Đỗ Thị Thu Giang, Giám đốc Dịch vụ Tư vấn Savills Việt Nam cho biết.
Thực tế, suốt quý I, thị trường căn hộ tại TP HCM không ghi nhận dự án mới do không có dự án đủ điều kiện huy động vốn, cũng không có dự án nhà ở mới được bàn giao đất. Do đó, các chuyên gia cho rằng, khi chủ đầu tư có đất và đầy đủ pháp lý, họ sẵn sàng đầu tư thêm tiện ích để nâng tầm giá bán từ phân khúc C lên B hoặc từ B lên A để có lợi nhuận.
Cuối cùng, áp lực dân số và nhu cầu nhà ở mới quá lớn khiến việc đưa giá nhà về một mặt bằng thấp hơn khó khả thi. Theo tính toán của Savills, nhu cầu tự nhiên hàng năm là khoảng 50.000 ngôi nhà tại TP HCM.
Đây là kết quả của tình trạng nhập cư hay hiện tượng “ra riêng” ở những người trưởng thành và số người trung bình sống trong một căn nhà giảm. Con số này đã không được đáp ứng trong một thời gian, dẫn đến nhu cầu bị dồn nén. “Gần 5 năm qua nguồn cung nhà ở TP HCM chưa đáp ứng được một nửa nhu cầu tự nhiên. Cầu cao và cung thấp nên giá nhà tiếp tục đẩy lên cao”, bà Giang nói.
Vậy đâu là lối ra để nhiều người có cơ hội mua nhà? Nhà ở xã hội được cho là sẽ tăng nguồn cung đáng kể trong 2 năm tới nhờ những nỗ lực của TP HCM. Nhưng không phải ai cũng tiếp cận được phân khúc này. Điều cần thiết vẫn là nhà ở thương mại giá chấp nhận được, giải bằng bài toán hạ tầng.
Các chuyên gia chỉ ra rằng, quá trình sở hữu nhà và tích luỹ vốn thường bắt đầu từ các căn hộ nhỏ giá cả phải chăng đến các căn hộ lớn hơn hoặc mua nhà liền thổ. Việc tìm nhà vị trí tốt mà rẻ là không khả thi với người mua nhà lần đầu. Do đó, cần tạo điều kiện để họ chấp nhận mua nhà giá rẻ hơn ở xa trung tâm.
Việc cung cấp hạ tầng giúp giảm thời gian di chuyển và mở ra nhiều sự lựa chọn hơn ở các vùng lân cận chính là đòn bẩy quan trọng nhất trong việc thay đổi cấu trúc giá trị của thị trường nhà ở, theo Savills.
Theo bà Giang, TP HCM có một cơ hội đó là mô hình phát triển đô thị gắn kết với giao thông công cộng (TOD) như hệ thống Metro. Hướng đi này sẽ tạo điều kiện cho phát triển quy mô lớn và mật độ dân cư cao dọc theo tuyến đường, làm cho việc đi lại từ các khu vực ngoại ô trở nên hiệu quả hơn.
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